The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting - Kyiv

Even in the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian businesses continue to view the customs system more positively than negatively. Yet, the latest survey of exporters and importers suggests that the focus of reform is changing.

In 2022–2023, when Russian aggression blocked most of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, the small river ports of Izmail, Reni, and Ust-Dunaisk quietly became lifelines. Grain, metals, oil products — all rerouted through the Danube. Cargo volumes multiplied sixfold. But in 2024, things changed.With the reopening of the Black Sea corridor, cargo naturally shifted back.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies creates both unprecedented opportunities for progress and significant risks to fundamental human rights, security, and privacy. This necessitates the development of balanced regulatory frameworks that would ensure the safe use of AI.

In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated a strong commitment to its economic obligations, meeting key conditions under the IMF and EU support programs. The country remained on track with its structural benchmarks, ensuring the flow of critical financing for non-defense expenditures. Entering 2025, risks persist, but Ukraine\'s focus on reforms and its urgent financing needs make staying the course essential.

At the outset of 2024, many economic projections assumed the war in Ukraine would conclude within the year. However, reality defied expectations. The war persisted, bringing new challenges, including territorial losses, large-scale infrastructure destruction, and sustained Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. The Government faced the pressing need to secure funding for the war effort and mobilize additional defense forces.

In September 2024, the business climate in Ukraine shows positive changes. In recent months, companies\' production and financial performance have increased, and expectations for further development remain optimistic.

Ukraine is experiencing an intense heat wave, with temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius. The situation is exacerbated by frequent power outages, lasting 15 to 18 hours a day, rendering air conditioners useless. These power shortages, the result of significant damage to Ukraine\'s power infrastructure caused by Russian military actions in March and April 2024, are profoundly impacting the daily lives of Ukrainians daily lives and business operations.

The full-scale invasion has become the most exhausting challenge for Ukraine’s economy. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian business sector with strong medium-sized private enterprises has demonstrated outstanding resilience despite economic downfall, missile and drone attacks, and electricity outages. The IER research asserts that in the last two decades, Ukraine has grown a new private sector that secures Ukraine’s resistance.

Recently, relations between Ukraine and Poland can hardly be called good and neighborly. However, many things unite these countries, not divide. For example, cooperation in the energy sector. We discussed this at our first Ukrainian-Polish discussion within the framework of the \"Ukrainian Path to European Union. Polish Accession Experience\" project.

Amid full-scale Russian military aggression, Ukrainian businesses have showcased remarkable resilience, buoyed by enduring optimism even as uncertainty clouds the horizon. This sentiment emerges from the monthly surveys conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultations (IER), providing valuable insights into the ever-changing landscape of business activity in times of war.