![Mass Student Protests in Serbia with Ivan Vejvoda [PODCAST]](http://4liberty.eu/phidroav/2025/05/LEP_Ivan-Vejvoda_square-1024x1024.png "Mass Student Protests in Serbia with Ivan Vejvoda [PODCAST]")
Why are students protesting in Serbia? What are the social and political reasons for the upheaval? What is the state of the Serbian democracy? Is the European Union choosing interests over values? And should we fear the recent geopolitical tensions in the Balkans? Leszek Jazdzewski (Fundacja Liberte!) talks with Ivan Vejvoda, Permanent fellow at the IWM. Ivan is the head of Europe’s Futures program and a host of Vienna Coffee House Conversations. He was the Senior Vice President for Programs at the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the United States, Executive Director of GMF’s Balkan Trust for Democracy, and in the Serbian government as a senior advisor on foreign policy and European integration to Prime Ministers Zoran Djindjic and Zoran Zivkovic. Prior to that, he served as Executive Director of the Belgrade-based Fund for an Open Society from 1998 to 2002. He was a key figure in the democratic opposition movement in Yugoslavia during the 1990s, and has published widely on the subjects of democratic transition, totalitarianism, and post-war reconstruction in the Balkans.
Leszek Jazdzewski (LJ): What are the reasons behind the huge social upheaval that is currently taking place in Serbia?
Ivan Vejvoda (IV): To put it in the simplest telegraphic terms, people have realized that living in a captured state with high levels of systemic corruption eventually, unfortunately, led to the death of 16 innocent people. Now, the government that we currently have has been in power since 2012. This is their 13th year. We, political scientists, call these regimes in different terms, for instance elective authoritarianism or elective autocracy. This means that we have elections, but there are serious elements of captured state as well as dismissal of separation of powers and checks and balances.
The institutions that are suffering the most are in the judiciary, especially the prosecution. What happened here was not unexpected, but also very surprising. Why? Because it was the students who rose up in the major Serbian cities and universities to protest the fact that there is a captured state. We all thought that Gen X, or Gen TikTok were apolitical, apathetic, and just waiting to get a diploma and leave the country and go somewhere else. And what happened was the exact opposite.
They have made a stand saying, ‘This is our country! We want to live here, and we want to make this country better. And we understand that we have to do this by our own means.’ This is the biggest surprise, because many people thought that young people would want to leave. Given the circumstances in Europe and the world, it is more difficult to get a job abroad these days than it was ten years ago. We need to remember that these young people who are in their 20s were 10 years old when this government came to power. As such, they know nothing about the wars, about the 1990s, about the Hague Tribunal. And still, they said, ‘We want to liberate the institutions.’
One of the surprising phenomena related to this movement is a completely new modus operandi. These are not your usual long daily protests of people marching in the street, which we have had over the past 12 years. This wave of protests is very deep. It is completely grassroots. It is authentic. And the best news is that this shows that this country, Serbia, has a very bright future given the generation that it has. It is very broad-based.
The students have woken up the Serbian society, and people have overcome their fear of speaking up against what is going on. Additionally, to use the old idea of Mahatma Gandhi, walking through Serbia. They are going through villages that are half empty because of the demographic decline. And so, they have created an atmosphere and a movement which the government does not know how to tackle.
The government has been using the protests to say that this is an external plot, that it is a colored revolution; that at times the West, and at times Russia are fomenting to displace the regime. Meanwhile, what the students are asking is very simple: their key demand is to have all documents related to the Chinese-led renovation of the Novi Sad railway station before the deadly disaster last November, so that we can see who is responsible for it, and, secondly, they want to see the money trail of corruption.
LJ: What is the political dimension of the ongoing protests? To what extent are Serbian political parties a part of it? And what is the current state of politics in Serbia and their relationship to the protest in general?
IV: There are three important things that need to be said first. First of all, and this relates to the theme of liberalism, democracy, rights, and the rule of law, the protests have a very deep and significant democratic dimension. The students are organized in plenums, which makes the protest horizontal – they have regular discussions that are documented, with set agendas, the minutes of all of these meetings are kept, and this has been going on for four months now. For four months, relentlessly, the students have been demanding the satisfaction of their key demand, which has not been met – and that is why they are persistent about this.
Secondly, the protests are completely peaceful. The protesters do not want them to hinder the resolution in any way, they want us to move towards free and fair elections. In this modus of theirs, this is sort of like a cleansing of society because they do not want to be related to anyone. They do not want help from abroad, nor the opposition parties. There is huge civic support for the protests because this is a civic movement as well. Citizens have risen in about 200 Serbian cities – from the largest (the capital of Belgrade), to the smallest village.
Needless to say, this is not a phenomenon limited only to the capital – it is one that is society-wide, and the students thus are trying to bring about a ‘purgatory moment,’ to open a new page and change the system. One of the things that has most irritated President Aleksandar Vučić is that from the very beginning they have said, ‘This is not about you, this is about our rule of law and the need to go back to independent institutions with checks and balances.’ One small example of their creativity is when they went in front of the Chief Prosecutor’s Office or the Constitutional Court and brought legal textbooks, calling for the officials to reread the exams that they had passed about what it means to abide by the Constitution and to have an independent judiciary, among others.
In this context, the question of how does this translate into politics is fundamental. We have an opposition that was weak, but the latest opinion polls show that there is a serious decline in support for the president’s coalition in the parliament, for the president himself, and a rise in the opposition if it were to appear united in the next elections. Now, as far as elections are concerned, and as you may know, when the prime minister resigned (more than nearly two months ago), the president offered to hold elections.
However, nobody in their right mind would go for elections if they were called now because of the unfree and unfair conditions – in terms of media, the electoral list (which needs to be amended), and the rules of electoral procedures (which have degraded during the twelve years of the regime). Therefore, my guess is that we will first have a new government towards the end of April, which would then prepare and work on reforms. Moreover, President Vučić met recently in Brussels with President of the European Council António Costa, and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and he promised that he would do all of that. The earliest elections could be held in October, more likely towards December.
The question, of course, remains whether the government will fulfill the students’ conditions – to reveal all the documents concerned and to indict and to send to jail those who are responsible. Fifteen people have been indicted – some are in jail, some are on house arrest. However, in the eyes of our citizens, the prosecution is moving a bit too slowly, to put it mildly. But I do not think that the student protest itself will diminish until some serious results in the prosecutorial procedure have been met.
When it comes to the political dimension of all this, the opposition, as it often is, is divided, and is now slowly coming together with a demand for an expert government of the so-called ‘people’s confidence’. The president has rejected the opposition as being that government. However, given the continuously declared intention of the Serbian government to join the European Union, the visit of the president to Brussels is very important because it continues the rhetoric goal of joining the European Union, thus showing that there is no other alternative for Serbia.
Our country depends on the European Union, notwithstanding all the Chinese investments that we have. Politically and historically, we are a part of Europe. And the president – who is now in a precarious position, given his decrease in ratings – understands that he must not move in any other direction but to try and fulfill the conditionalities of Europe. We shall see how that goes in the coming weeks.
LJ: Why are the said documents not being released? Is there so much to hide that it would actually be more dangerous to reveal the information they contain than to have the protests in the streets?
IV: The simple answer is: yes, that is a fear. About two months ago, some op-ed writers already said that revealing all the documents would be tantamount to a political suicide. However, on the other hand, there is a huge pressure. Therefore, something will have to give. Some people will have to go to jail. Two former ministers have been indicted, they are on house arrest.
It is important to say that the Novi Sad railway station reconstruction is a part of a grand project of building a high-speed railway between Belgrade and the capital of Hungary, Budapest, with the Chinese contractor being the main one and the subcontractor is a Hungarian company. Then, you have many sub-subcontracting firms that are from Serbia, and many people suspect that these are related to the people in the government. Therefore, although about 3,000 pages of documents have already been published, experts and engineers are saying that some of the pages are very ably not being published. But again, the pressure is huge, which is why we will have to go in that direction.
It also needs to be noted that the prime minister who resigned was a mayor, but, on that day, the current mayor of Novi Sad resigned. There is now a new mayor. This is why there is a lot of suspicion of corrupt networks that are related to the reconstruction of the railway station.
LJ: For many people, the strange silence of the European Union has been really irritating and difficult to comprehend. Some MEPs protested against the meeting between President Vučić with the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission, not wanting to give him credit in this difficult moment when it is actually students who are truly supporting the very values on which the EU has been founded. Meanwhile, the EU seems to be choosing interests over values. What is your take on it?
IV: I must start with another one of the many very witty placards of the students which says ‘Europe, keep silent, we will talk later.’ Many people are asking the same question you are asking but in different ways. Why are there no European flags in the protests? This phenomenon relates to what I said earlier: the students want this movement to be completely ‘pure’, based only off of the energy of the people. We, the people, need to change ourselves. Later on, we will talk about all of this.
Of course, I always say that if we had a referendum on Europe, we would have a majority of people who wanted to join for a commonsense reason. The last poll shows that there has never been more support for the European Union – 77 or 78% of people currently admit that we have benefited from Europe. Everyone has somebody living in some European country, which is why there is no doubt that we need leadership to go in that direction.
One of the things that is important is that the world has changed, and it is not trivial to say that. And these students realize that even leaving the country would not be as easy if you left ten years ago to get a job and to move in that world.
Another very important thing is that European leaders have been very supportive of this government and this president, and it is important to understand why. Serbia has been definitely on the Western side of things, with massive support for the Ukrainian war effort shown by means of exporting artillery shells to the tone of a couple of billion euros bought by third countries. President Vučić has a very close relationship with President Zelensky. He has sent his wife to Kiev for various meetings several times.
Secondly, there is the relationship with France. Serbia will be buying French fighter jets, Rafale. France is building the Belgrade Metro (we are one of the rare capital cities that does not have a metro yet). France has a concession on the Belgrade Airport for the next 25 years.
Finally, there is the issue of the lithium mine. I like to half-flippantly say that Serbia is about to save the German car industry by digging this lithium. The mine should only start operating in about three years’ time as an underground mine, not an open mine. This is very important because there were huge protests against this mine for several reasons.
One of the reasons was typical: the government decided to do this on its own without any stakeholder buy-in from either the people living there, or experts from the academic community and the engineering field. They suddenly announced that this would be the case. Exploration began under the former government – the democratic government of Boris Tadić, back in 2004, – as these things take a lot of time to research to see whether there are enough deposits. But the special difference between other lithium mines is that, for the first time, it would be mine located in a populated, agriculturally rich area. Therefore, with all the environmental hazard that such a mine provokes, this really brought out the people onto the streets.
In this light, before the elections three years ago, the government pretended that they are stopping this process, but then came back to it. The company that is doing this is Rio Tinto, a multinational British-Australian company in which China has an 11% stake. The promise was that Serbia would gain a significant amount of money because there would be a processing plant (and possibly also an electrical battery plant). In August, the memorandum of understanding was signed with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Maroš Šefčovič of the European Commission. Then, protests followed and that has really mobilized the society. There is a general feeling that is a bad idea for an area that is very rich, as the mine would destroy some water deposits underneath.
We will see where this goes. My personal guess was that this would go ahead before the protests started. But now, after the protests have already started (on November 22, 2024), it is hard for me, given the general atmosphere that this will advance. But who knows? This is not yet a strategic European project and we shall see whether it is declared as one at the level of Brussels or not.
LJ: There are recent news about closer military ties between Serbia and Hungary in response to the memorandum on a military alliance signed by Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo. When something like this happens in the Balkans, people always fear another Balkan wars and that it could turn into something nasty. How seriously should this be taken? Or is it just posturing?
IV: Most sadly, dramatically, and regretfully, we experienced a war in the 1990s. It implicated the whole region of the former Yugoslavia as well as other countries in sanctions and corruption networks. I do not think there is energy for it now and that is why it seems to be rather a matter of posturing.
Nevertheless, we have to be very careful. When politicians use fiery rhetoric, you never know where it could lead. But my guess is that it will remain at that, and there will be more fiery rhetoric. It is thus very significant to underscore and to remind the Reader that we have three countries who are full members of NATO in the region (Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia), whereas Croatia and Slovenia are also EU members. Moreover, we are surrounded by EU and NATO members completely. There are 5,000 NATO troops in Kosovo. In Bosnia, there is an EU mission, which is the successor to a NATO mission called EU-4, which has now about 1,000 soldiers.
President Vučić recently met with Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte in Brussels. Serbia has very close cooperation with NATO through the Individual Partnership Action Plan program (IPAP), and has more exercises with NATO troops than with anyone else. This is not what people have followed, nor does it make the news, which is why it is important to understand the broader framework in which all of this is happening. And, I repeat, the significant support that Serbia has given to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression through the export of artillery shells counts very much in how the West delivers.
Let us now turn to the attitude of Europe. When European leaders come – like Chancellor Scholz did in April – and say to the president, ‘You are doing a wonderful job at reforming your country!’ without even an inkling of criticism, saying, ‘Well, maybe you could do a little more on a judicial reform or on media freedom,’ that would work. And people’s eyes just roll over as the question arises: what about the values? Where are the values here? So much so that after this visit, there was a plethora of independent press saying, ‘Europe is trading lithium for our democracy.’ I mean, is this what Europe is about?
And so, Franziska Brantner, the German Parliamentary State Secretary, had to give about six interviews in that following month to say, ‘No, no, no, we are not trading your democracy for lithium. We will see to it and hold Serbia responsible for democratic reforms.’ Therefore, it is not that they are not aware of the issue, but in these geopolitical times, unfortunately, some things are taking precedent over some others. And that is why Serbian students have understood that they have to ensure that the democratic reform happens themselves.
LJ: Do you see a better future for Serbia, given the recent events and the student protests?
IV: I definitely see a better future for my country. It will, however, take time. There is nothing that happens overnight, as you know well from your country and your history. But I like to say (maybe a bit boldly) that just as we were ‘the bad news’ at the beginning of the 1990s, when everyone was returning to Europe and going to democracy after the fall of communism (and Yugoslavia was going down the hellhole into populism, identity politics, and raising old historical grievances), maybe we are now the harbinger of the good things that come elsewhere with this very strong, very deep seated, and very committed democratic movement of the students.
It is a kind of a new 1848 or the Paris Commune, where you have people really understanding that they have to rise themselves if they want to have a better society to live in. And there is nothing easy about that. The political dimension is fundamental. But given the European surroundings that we are in, there is some space for democratic hope and democratic imagination to actually yield results.
Find out more about the guest: www.iwm.at/fellow/ivan-vejvoda
Listen to the episode of the Vienna Coffee House Conversations with Ivan Vejvoda and Leszek Jazdzewski www.iwm.at/europes-futures/pub…l-europe-and-the-us
This podcast is produced by the European Liberal Forum in collaboration with Movimento Liberal Social and Fundacja Liberté!, with the financial support of the European Parliament. Neither the European Parliament nor the European Liberal Forum are responsible for the content or for any use that be made of.