forecast

In August 2022, the production recovery in Ukraine continued, but the dynamics of the indicators of the economic conditions indicate a possible slowing down of the recovery trend in 6 months perspective. This is indicated by several important factors.

2022 will be the year of a momentous election in Hungary. We can’t see past it but we can line up the forces that shape the outcome. We will analyze the four possible scenarios of election results – supermajority or simple majority to either side – and what may come after.

Anyone who thinks that the German parliamentary elections were particularly exciting and uncertain in their results has not yet dealt with the hot campaign phase in the Czech Republic. There, the new Chamber of Deputies will be elected on Friday and Saturday this week.

2021 will be the year when the financial crackdown on opposition cities will gain momentum. No self-restraint can be expected in this regard.

In December 2019, it seemed that 2020 would be the key year for Poland, and that the events of the next year, 2021, would be a simple consequence of the last important political verdict of a closed election cycle – the election of the President of Poland.

The ongoing conflict and economic downturn have taken a toll on Ukrainian businesses across the sectors and sizes. For them, the current political and market uncertainty would make a zero-growth scenario look like a positive development, which, however, is not yet in sight.

The economic situation in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016 will depend on progress in externally supported reform program and on stabilization in the Eastern Ukraine. Fiscal consolidation, decline in real wages and unemployment will cause reduction of real private consumption. Weak hryvnia, despite dragging down consumption and investments, helps to increase fiscal revenues and narrow the current account deficit.