Many people still do not seem to be aware of the Putin regime’s perfidious hybrid warfare against liberal democracy and the rule of law in Europe. It is therefore all the more important to talk about it publicly in order to fight against it.
In the spirit of international awareness-raising, the European Liberal Forum (ELF) organized a panel discussion entitled “Russian Influence in European Democracy” on November 18 in Sofia with the Project: Poland Foundation and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF). The aim was not only to shed light on selected EU countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Austria, and Slovakia but also to discuss liberal counter-strategies. Developments in the current super-election year, including the recent US presidential and Bulgarian parliamentary elections, show just how important such an exchange is.
Bulgaria in Permanent Crisis Mode
The time and place could not be more symbolic: just before the 1,000th day of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and in the European capital where Russian propaganda is most aggressive and the government crisis is therefore most pronounced. After all, the Kremlin’s mouthpieces occupy the highest positions in the country, as Mila Moshelova, political analyst and moderator of the panel, emphasized.
The pro-Russian propaganda denying the war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law, is therefore coming from the Bulgarian head of state, which is remarkable after years of pro-European stance. In addition, the country has gone through seven parliamentary elections since 2021 without being able to form a functioning government. Instead, pro-Russian henchmen and liberal democratic forces are in constant conflict.
Poland Offers Fragile Glimmer of Hope
Referring to his co-edited publication “Putin’s Europe” with numerous case studies and liberal-democratic counter-strategies, Miłosz Hodun, a Board Member of ELF, explained Poland’s arduous return to European standards under Donald Tusk’s predominantly liberal-democratic government. Even though the Article 7 proceedings against Poland have been discontinued since last May, it remains anything but guaranteed that the autocratic PiS party will not form the government again after the next parliamentary elections and undo the hard-won constitutional repair work of the Tusk government.
Although there is a nationwide aversion to Russia and its breach of international law, also due to historical reasons, a completely absurd conspiracy narrative persists in the public eye: Donald Tusk is a Kremlin spy. Incidentally, a completely different espionage affair was uncovered there. By contrast, the presidential elections next year could offer hope, when PiS supporter Andrzej Duda could finally be voted out of office with his obstructionist stance.
Slovakia, Problem Child
Slovakia is also currently experiencing a clear departure from the EU and NATO under the pro-Russian and Hungary-friendly government of Robert Fico, according to Michal Adam, political analyst for the Progressive Slovakia party. Russian infiltration can be seen at both a narrative and institutional level. Public discourse is increasingly being steered in an anti-EU and anti-NATO direction, while pro-Russian attitudes are gaining in importance.
At the same time, more and more Putin sympathizers are taking up government positions. All of this goes hand in hand with Slovakia’s overall weak foreign policy, which, according to Adam, makes it easy to manipulate the official position, not least through espionage activities right up to the Ministry of Defence. However, the anti-democratic and anti-European course of the Fico government is opposed by a broad liberal-democratic protest movement in Slovakia. On November 17, the anniversary of the Velvet Revolution in 1989, thousands of people demonstrated in Bratislava against Fico’s boycott of aid to Ukraine and the EU sanctions against Russia, and his planned trip to Moscow.
Crisis Winner FPÖ
Silvia Nadjivan knows that the pro-Russian infiltration in Austria is much more perfidious by comparison. After all, in contrast to Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary, the ‘Putin-understanders’ in this country do not take an obviously pro-Putin stance but are vehemently hostile to the EU and NATO. These hostilities can be clearly traced in the FPÖ campaigns for the European and national elections, as well as in the FPÖ party program, which resolutely rejects the regulations of the supranational EU organization as well as Sky Shield and cooperation with NATO under the pretext of achieving peace – without any reference to the famous “how”.
The most recent example is the discussion about stopping Russian gas supplies to Austria. Without making it clear how peace could be achieved in Ukraine, the FPÖ is mobilizing in a populist black-and-white manner against Austrian support for Ukraine and EU sanctions against Russia. The strategy of polarising instead of offering concrete solutions has brought the FPÖ a large increase in votes in the European and National Council elections. Finally, there is great social dissatisfaction in the face of multiple crises (from the energy crisis, inflation, inflation, and migration to the consequences of the coronavirus crisis), which right-wing populist parties such as the FPÖ can capitalize on politically.
Security Risk for Austria
A possible FPÖ government participation in Austria would not only be a threat to liberal democracy and the rule of law but also a security policy risk. Apart from the infamous Ibiza affair, the affair surrounding the Austrian intelligence service (BVT affair) under the then Interior Minister Herbert Kickl revealed entanglements with the Russian secret service. As a result, Austria was excluded from the international information network and only re-admitted with reservations under the Turkish-Green government. It was the international information and warnings that prevented the planned terrorist attacks at the Vienna Pride Parade in June 2023 and the three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna that were ultimately canceled in August 2024. Unthinkable under an FPÖ government.
What Needs to Be Done
Despite all the different and country-specific differences, it is important for liberal democratic forces across Europe to listen to people at eye level, take their fears and concerns seriously, offer concrete solutions, and cooperate more closely with each other across Europe. Finally, liberal democratic counter-strategies include increased awareness-raising and educational work as well as intensified networking in an increasingly institutionally strengthened Europe.
The article was first published in German on the website of the NEOS Lab.
