Bulgaria loses between 2.4 and 4.9 billion USD of additional GDP per year due to discrimination against LGBTI+ people, as estimated in a report[1] by the Institute for Market Economics (IME). Bulgaria’s GDP could be 2.5% to 5% higher were there to be full acceptance and equality for LGBTI+ people, according to an estimate by IME based on the 2023 data.
The analysis shows that rejection and discrimination are among the key drivers of emigration from Bulgaria for LGBTI+ people. Just along the lines of reversing migration processes among homosexuals, the country has the potential to increase its population by 3-5 thousand people per year.
According to the report, discrimination in the workplace has a direct impact on employee productivity. The assessment reveals the potential to increase the value added by LGBTI+ workers in Bulgaria by almost 10 thousand BGN per year and labor productivity in the economy as a whole – by up to 1.8%.
Wider acceptance of LGBTI+ people is also reflected in the labor market. Eliminating discrimination in hiring has the potential to increase the number of people in employment by 28 – 57 thousand and the employment rate by 0.7-1.4 percentage points.
Additionally, the report shows that the positioning and perception of Bulgaria as open and safe for LGBTI+ tourism could bring 184 million BGN in additional revenue to the tourism sector of the economy. The country loses almost 380,000 potential tourists who opt for other destinations.
LGBTI+ acceptance has an established link to the potential for innovation. The analysis shows that if discrimination is fully eliminated, Bulgaria could increase its Economic Complexity Index – a commonly used measure of innovation potential and high-tech development – to levels close to the European average.
The IME’s assessment of the country’s investment expansion potential shows that discrimination against LGBTI+ people reduces the potential amount of foreign direct investment in the country by 9-15%, an estimated 2.5-4.3 billion EUR by 2022.
Improving the environment for the LGBTI+ community has the potential to increase the number of workers, and value-added in professional, managerial, and so-called creative industries. The estimated potential impact on employment goes up to 21,000 new employees and that on added value – by up to 350 million BGN.
The IME analysis also provides an overview of company policies towards the LGBTI+ community of Bulgaria’s 100 largest companies. It reveals that only 9% of companies – leaders in employment have specific activities that target the community, 19% explicitly condemn discrimination, and in 70% of them there is no mention of policies or support for the LGBTI+ community.
The presented hypotheses, estimates, and quantitative consequences of homophobia and discrimination can serve mostly as a starting point for a conversation about the benefits the Bulgarian economy could gain if it makes better use of the resources of its LGBTI+ community. They can also arm equal rights advocates with arguments.
A wide range of scientific theories in economics, public health, and other social sciences support the idea that overcoming disenfranchisement and fully including LGBTI+ people is linked to higher levels of economic development and well-being. Bulgaria ranks among the last in Europe in terms of guaranteeing the rights of LGBTI+ people, and even worse in terms of their acceptance in society. The observed trends over the last decade are not particularly encouraging either, as no indicators are pointing to a significant improvement in the public environment or opinion. The most appropriate description of the current state of rights and acceptance of LGBTI+ people in the country is ‘stagnation’, and at a shallow level.
[1] See her, in Bulgarian: https://ime.bg/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ime-economic-impact-of-tolerance-2024_ad-1.pdf