editorial partner Liberte! Friedrich Naumann Foundation

Tomio Okamura, the Czech Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, made a New Year’s speech which is a prime example of economic populism that pretends to be “common sense” but is actually based on systematic simplification, confusion of terms, and false dilemmas. Underneath the appealing language of optimism and concern for “ordinary people” lies a set of claims that deny known facts, ignore the government’s policy statement, and distort reality.

I do not know if Tomio Okamura is doing this intentionally or if he is just a stupid and uneducated ignoramus, but either way, it is very dangerous in his position as a constitutional official.

Hysteria Instead of Analysis and Denial of Risk as Strategy

Okamura combines the pandemic, climate change, and war into one concept: “hysteria.” This framework is not accidental. Populism often replaces working with risk with denying it.

Pandemics, climate change, and war are not ideological constructs, but real shocks to the economy – whether on the supply or demand side. Policies that downplay risks ultimately increase future costs – and it is always the “ordinary people” that populists so often refer to who end up paying for them.

I would like to remind Tomi that 43,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the Czech Republic. And 7 million people worldwide. At a time when hospital capacities were insufficient and there were no medicines, masks or disinfectants available, we could probably talk about hysteria, as most people did not want to die, not even those who doped themselves with ivermectin, a dewormer for horses.

CO₂: True Statement Used to Reach False Conclusion

The claim that CO₂ is a “useful and necessary gas” is trivially true. However, it is equally true that excessive CO₂ emissions represent a negative externality, i.e., a cost that is not included in the market price and affects third parties.

The reason carbon is being addressed is that externalities should be internalized through taxes. Okamura deliberately confuses poorly designed regulations with the principle itself. The result is a straw man argument: instead of discussing effective tools, we are given a false choice between “common sense” and “green madness.” In this case, however, Okamura himself has gone mad, because ignoring scientific facts requires a considerable amount of brain eclipse.

Energy and Inflation: Ignoring How The Market Works

One of the key claims of the speech is that high inflation in Czechia was caused by the government’s failure to take advantage of the “surplus of cheap electricity.” This argument ignores the basic reality of the European energy market. I would like to explain to Tomio how the electricity market works. The price of electricity in the Czech Republic is not an administrative decision by the government, but the result of an integrated market where the price is determined by the marginal source, often gas. Inflation was a combination of global factors: the pandemic’s aftermath, war, energy shock, and previous fiscal expansion (Andrej Babiš’s government’s million COVID programs and Alena Schillerová’s spending spree – see our study Czech government corona measures). Only a fool would reduce it to “the government’s evil intentions.”

Ratings and Public Finances: Selective Use of Facts

Okamura brandishes the rating as proof of “the worst government in history.” At the same time, however, he neglects to mention that the Czech Republic still maintains an investment rating and relatively low debt in the European context. À propos, the Czech Republic’s rating at the end of Petr Fiala’s government (2025) and at the end of Andrej Babiš’s government (2021) is the same: AA-, Aa3 (Moody’s and Fitch).

Ratings are a comprehensive assessment of long-term debt repayment capacity. Using them selectively, without the context of the structural deficit accumulated in previous years, is not a serious analysis, but a rhetorical trick.

Security as Public Good, Not “Unnecessary Luxury”

The refusal to support Ukraine is framed in the speech as a moral choice between “our people” and “a foreign war.”

From an economic point of view, this is a false dilemma. Security is a public good. Its underfunding will not be felt immediately, but in the form of higher future costs. History has repeatedly shown that deterrence is cheaper than subsequent defense. If someone claims that helping an attacked country is “pointless,” they should also explain what the costs of not helping will be. And we have already written here that it is half as expensive to send weapons to Ukraine.

Migration as Scapegoat

Linking migration with crime, low wages, and unaffordable housing is one of the oldest populist narratives. However, economic data paint a different picture.

Ukrainians in Czechia mostly work, pay taxes, and help maintain the labor market. The housing problem is primarily a problem of insufficient supply, caused by regulations and dysfunctional zoning. Shifting the blame onto foreigners is politically effective but economically empty. And it does not solve the situation.

Moreover, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs shows in its analysis that Ukrainians are paying off fiscally. Since the beginning of the war, their net contribution to the budget has already reached CZK 18.8 billion, and their contribution to the economy is growing every quarter. Revenues are the total taxes and contributions paid, while expenditures are the benefits and contributions paid to persons with temporary protection status. In the third quarter of 2025, the state had already earned 110% of what it had paid out in support from Ukrainians.

Period Revenues (CZK billions) Outlays (CZK billions) Difference (absolute) Difference (%)
Q1 2023 4.9 7 −2.1 −30%
Q2 2023 4.5 6.4 −1.9 −30%
Q3 2023 4.8 4.4 0.4 9%
Q4 2023 5.2 4.2 1 24%
Q1 2024 5.9 3.8 2.1 55%
Q2 2024 5.9 3.7 2.2 59%
Q3 2024 6.3 4 2.3 58%
Q4 2024 7.1 4 3.1 78%
Q1 2025 7.4 3.8 3.6 95%
Q2 2025 7.6 3.8 3.8 100%
Q3 2025 8.2 3.9 4.3 110%
Total 67.8 49 18.8

 

If Tomio wants to fulfill his pre-election promises and reduce the budget deficit, he should, on the contrary, support migration from Ukraine. And if he wants to live up to the government’s program statement about how the government wants to attract foreign talent, he, as a person of mixed Korean-Japanese-Czech origin, should stop spitting on immigrants. Especially when 45% of all Ukrainians in our country (counting the total, including those who came before the war) are adult women, 32% are children, and only 23% are adult men. Tomio, this is really low and ungentlemanly. Only a desolate person can spit on women and children who are paying us.

The data above shows that Ukrainian women have not taken anyone’s jobs, and if Tomio still has doubts about this, unemployment in the Czech Republic was 3.2% in October (latest data from the Czech Statistical Office), which is one of the lowest figures in the EU, and it is really not a problem, because full employment only exists under socialism. The only people on benefits are those who are either looking for a new job and have a few months off, or simply do not want to work.

Foreign Policy as a Set of Conspiracy Theories

The parts of the speech devoted to “Western arms manufacturers,” “golden toilets,” and alleged plans to buy Nord Stream show signs of disinformation discourse: strong emotions, missing sources, and a clearly identified culprit. Russia’s responsibility for the war is systematically obscured, while the West is portrayed as a cynical instigator of the conflict.

This is not a criticism of globalism or a defense of national interests. It is the adoption of foreign propaganda that has nothing to do with the sovereignty of our country.

Tomio, please go and talk to the arms manufacturers who are now selling weapons in Ukraine. The demand for weapons is so high right now that many Czech companies are profiting from it (and paying high taxes as a result). On the contrary, it is against national interests and previous promises of a balanced budget to suppress these activities. Ukraine buys weapons from us.

By the way, where is the guns lobby when a Russian troll is spreading this propaganda here?

Populism Is Not Common Sense, It Is a Brain Eclipse

Tomio Okamura’s speech is not an economic alternative, but an emotional outburst that offers simple culprits instead of real solutions. Populism is based on dividing society, denying risks, and short-term political gain. And that in itself is at odds with what Tomio wants to become. Tomio wants to be a statesman. But he is definitely not a statesman, certainly not of the Czech Republic, perhaps of the Russian Federation. And in a few years, we will remember him as a tragic statesman who certainly does not defend national or economic interests.

Okamura’s theses are so economically ill-founded that if they were to be implemented, they would have a disastrous effect on the Czech Republic and its poor economic performance. His speech is a mixture of economic naivety, simplification, distortion of facts, and grandiose statements that really do not serve the interests of the Czech Republic. All of this leads me to believe that Okamura’s goal is to destroy Czech sovereignty and the Czech economy.


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