The ongoing conflict and economic downturn have taken a toll on Ukrainian businesses across the sectors and sizes. For them, the current political and market uncertainty would make a zero-growth scenario look like a positive development, which, however, is not yet in sight.
The economic situation in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016 will depend on progress in externally supported reform program and on stabilization in the Eastern Ukraine. Fiscal consolidation, decline in real wages and unemployment will cause reduction of real private consumption. Weak hryvnia, despite dragging down consumption and investments, helps to increase fiscal revenues and narrow the current account deficit.
Low demand and unfavorable political situation are the major obstacles for the development of industrial enterprises in Ukraine as of early 2015. Such were the results of the quarterly business survey in which Ukrainian businesses assessed the 4th quarter of 2014 conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
“Nations, just like women, experience brief moments of intoxication. But those moments pass soon enough.”. Adam Michnik talks to Leszek Jażdżewski, editor-in-chief of Polish liberal quarterly magazine Liberté!, about how a brief moment of European weakness will affect Russia in the end and what can go wrong in the meantime.
While creating the Energy Union, the EU should do its best to employ such mechanisms that would limit the regulatory power over the prices of sources and energy of individual states on the national level as much as possible. Such a solution applied to this specific market would – at least to some extent – secure a proper space for market principles and energy prices reflecting incomes of the citizens of a respective state.
The freedom of our Eastern neighbours seems to have fallen into the rabbit hole. Ukrainians will not catch it on their own. Only Alice holds the key to unlocking their civic rights, but Europe still refuses to man up and play this part. The Mad Hatter won’t stop being mad just because someone says him to do so.
Ukrainian SMEs are poorly represented in the European market and do not expect any significant benefits from the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU. At the same time, they are relatively less afraid of the possible negative consequences of trade liberalization with the EU.
Orbán is interested only in cash, not in values. His disregard for values or (to make it sound more proudly) for ethos of Western democracy continues for years and is expressed in many constitutional reforms or a positive evaluation of the model of the political system of modern China. He therefore easily avoids the topic of Ukraine’s right to sovereignty, self-reliance in international politics and territorial integrity.
The conference organised by Foundation Institute for Eastern Studies on February 15-17 in Łódź gathered in Poland many distinguished individuals, including politicians, journalists, think tankers and many others, who were seeking the possible ways of helping Ukraine develop in the midst of the on-going conflict with Russia. Liberté! was media partner of the event.
What will happen if there accidentally will be a change of government in Russia under the pressure of economic sanctions? This would be a success for European Union, but at the same time it would not solve the fact that Russian propaganda of nationalism has build anticipation in Russian society that a new leader will have to face, having in mind his own reputation.
