After recent years filled with tragic events, conflicts, and global pandemics, many of us are, above all, hoping for a breakthrough in the form of an ending. An end to populism, an end to war, or an end to the right-wing offensive launched by Trump in 2024; an offensive that has swept across Europe, both Americas, and is steadily pushing us toward an open war with Putin’s Russia. At the same time, however, we should be prepared for the possibility that 2026 will mark the beginning of… the end.
The previous year has left a strong mark on the global socio-political landscape. In some respects, it disappointed us, in others it reinforced our convictions, and in still others it injected unexpected, yet desperately needed, hope.
Rather than analyzing what is already behind us, however, let us look ahead. After years saturated with tragedy, conflict, and pandemics, we all yearn for closure: the end of populism, the end of war, the end of the right-wing surge initiated by Trump in 2024, now advancing through Europe and the Americas and inexorably bringing us closer to open conflict with Putin’s Russia. Yet we must also be ready for the possibility that 2026 will be the beginning of the end—the end of the world as we know it, the end of hope for a united Europe.
In this article, I aim to take a closer look at 2026 and break it down into two sides: thirteen opportunities and thirteen threats the year may bring.
1. Threat – Donald Trump
The first year of “restoring America to greatness” under PDT is behind us. Donald Trump decided not to bother with half-measures and all the concerns I shared with readers last year were not only confirmed but doubled. He has taken steps so deeply entrenched in absurdity that any remaining boundaries of rationality disappeared far beyond the horizon.
The first year of the 52nd presidency of Donald Trump confirmed one thing: he does not care about us. Ending the war in Ukraine “in one day” turned into an endless attempt to hand Ukrainian territory over to Putin. The U.S. president has shown that he cares about only one thing, which is his own interests. Ukraine is not among them, so he will end the war as quickly as possible, not necessarily as rationally as possible, even if that means bringing Putin closer to Poland’s borders.
1. Opportunity – Donald Trump
This year, Donald Trump also proved that not only is he incapable of what he promised his voters, but that he cannot even restrain himself from starting new wars. The bombing of several cities in Venezuela is clear evidence of this.
Yet the short and victorious conflict with Maduro demonstrated one positive trait we have long known about Trump. While he despises the language of “democratic bureaucrats,” he understands the language of authoritarian dictators very well. He managed the situation with the Latin American tyrant remarkably quickly, and his meetings with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin suggest one thing: Trump knows how to talk to tyrants.
In the world he has helped create, this is a significant asset. The question is whether we will be the ones to benefit from it.
2. Threat – Grzegorz Braun
Last year’s presidential election delivered not only dramatic expectations but also a shocking trend. After securing fourth place, Grzegorz Braun caught the wind in his sails and decided to exploit it to the fullest.
Since June, he has been gathering extremists around him, dominating TikTok, and crossing ever higher thresholds of support. All with one goal: winning the 2027 election. But first comes 2026. If this trend does not reverse now, in a few years we may wake up in a country governed by a pro-Russian fanatic.
2. Opportunity – Radosław Sikorski
Although last year was for Sikorski primarily a year of another defeat and the end of his presidential ambitions, it also made one thing clear: how badly we need him. Against the decisive and strong Nawrocki, Trzaskowski appeared weak and lethargic.
In an era of even greater danger from even more radical right-wing populists, we need someone far tougher, someone experienced in hard negotiations at the helm of government. In my view, only Sikorski can provide the impulse that will reverse the growth of the far right and bring the October 15 Coalition back into the game.
3. Threat – KO’s Rightward Turn
This is a crucial year for the currently largest party in Poland’s political system. On the one hand, KO has finally become the stable leader in the polls; on the other, all its coalition partners have lost support, and the parliamentary majority hangs by a thread.
Tusk therefore chose a shortcut and decided to steer his party to the right, as illustrated by the controversy over prohibition involving Warsaw city councilors. After years of positioning Civic Platform on the left and clearly defining its stance on abortion, does KO still have any credibility left?
3. Opportunity – Tusk’s Retirement
Riding in like a knight in shining armor in 2023, Donald Tusk significantly helped liberal and left-wing forces regain power. At some point, however, he seems to have lost control over his own party, and the government increasingly appears paralyzed. If the current prime minister decides to finally take a well-earned rest, he may save not only his own image but also that of his party and the coalition as a whole.
4. Threat – Nawrocki the Unifier
For years, PiS followed a simple and effective strategy: no force to its right. Over the past year, however, this rule has been broken. Confederation has solidified its position on the political stage, and Braun’s extremists have reached unprecedented levels of support. In such circumstances, the current president appears to be PiS’s best option—the only credible right-wing figure capable of leading a new conservative party that could unite both Confederation nationalists and PiS lawmakers.
4. Opportunity – Breakup of PiS
It once seemed that the party created by the Kaczyński brothers was an unshakable monolith. It was never about friendship or lofty ideals, but about shared interests. In times of threat, even the most radical hardliners fell in line and united behind PiS against a common enemy—never against the party leader. Today, this is no longer so obvious. PiS is fracturing into competing interest groups that no longer see a common denominator in the cunning yet aging man with a cat from Żoliborz.
5. Threat – Populists
The wave of populism has been sweeping the world for years, but it reached its peak after Trump’s victory in 2024. Climate change denial, efforts to dismantle EU structures, and openness to resurgent Russian imperialism are just a few reasons why populists deserve a place on this list. They will also intersect indirectly with several other threats outlined here.
5. Opportunity – Resistance to Populism
States—especially in Eastern Europe—are placing increasing emphasis on civic awareness and the ability to fight disinformation. Media programs such as “fact-checkers” have become popular, exposing lies most often spread by populists.
6. Threat – Global Warming: Beyond Stopping
This year, policies related to sustainability and environmental protection took on a new character. We have effectively stopped trying to prevent global warming and moved one step further: preparing for its consequences. This means one thing—the climate crisis is no longer reversible.
6. Opportunity – Populists on Climate Defense
Climate denialists are increasingly admitting that the climate is indeed changing. Although they offer absurd explanations—claiming it is merely a natural planetary cycle—this still signals one thing: on this issue, populists have been pushed onto the defensive.
7. Threat – Artificial Intelligence
This year, we grew accustomed to living with popular tools like ChatGPT. As expected, however, our dependence on AI has gone far too far. Young people treat it uncritically as an all-knowing sage, confide their personal problems to it, and ask it for effective ways to commit suicide. Meanwhile, Grok on platform X is used to strip real women in manipulated images. Will virtual rape escalate further in 2026?
7. Opportunity – Artificial Intelligence
At the same time, we have discovered new effective uses of AI. We are automating more and more processes, reducing production time and improving efficiency across industries. This is a promising outlook for 2026.
8. Threat – TikTok
Anyone wondering where Grzegorz Braun and his pro-Russian extremists have gone should turn off the television and pick up their phone. Russian disinformation has taken refuge on TikTok. AI-generated content is becoming increasingly dangerous, feeding older users (especially on TikTok) with false, pro-Russian narratives that pose a serious threat to all of us.
8. Opportunity – Social Resilience
Russia’s brutal aggression over the past year has also led to positive conclusions. Poland is introducing Civic Education in schools, NGOs are receiving grants for projects aimed at strengthening social resilience, and Eastern European governments are taking increasingly confident steps toward preparing societies to resist Russian influence.
9. Threat – Marginalizing Extremists
We have excluded the far-right fringe from mainstream media in Poland, denying them access to microphones. As a result, their poll numbers continue to rise. The 10 percent support for the Confederation of the Polish Crown comes largely from TikTok, where they portray themselves as victims excluded from public debate. In 2026, this may strengthen them even further.
9. Opportunity – Confronting Extremists Publicly
In 2026, however, we can effectively reduce support for pro-Russian extremists, but only if we find the courage to allow the worst right-wing demagogues into public television debates. Only by confronting their lies directly can we dismantle their false narratives before a broad audience.
10. Threat – Trump’s World Cup
In 2026, another major soccer tournament awaits us. In June, the World Cup will take place in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. If the tournament unfolds like the draw ceremony, we can expect a grand political spectacle and the promotion of “Trumpism.” The U.S. president will not miss any marketing opportunity to sell himself to the media. Are we heading toward a festival of cringe-worthy Trump promotion lightly decorated with soccer?
10. Opportunity – A World Cup of Equality?
The upcoming World Cup will not be shaped solely by the U.S. administration. In Seattle, the annual Pride parade is planned at the same time the Iranian national team is expected to be in the city—a clear demonstration of the strength of the liberal left.
11. Threat – The Trumpification of Republicans
Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 pushed the Republican Party onto a new path, one entirely different from what we once knew. From a party of gentlemen who respected dialogue, law, and compromise, it has become a party of populists indifferent to legal norms and conversation. If Trump reportedly hinted in 2025 that he might not rule out setting a precedent for a third term, what will 2026 bring?
11. Opportunity – The “Mamdani-ization” of Democrats
The elections in New York took an interesting turn. It turns out that even in right-wing times, a liberal-left force can win. Mamdani became New York’s antidote to Trumpism. Voters chose free public transportation and support for the poorest residents. Perhaps the path once charted by Bernie Sanders will become the Democrats’ winning strategy in 2026.
12. Opportunity – Elections in Hungary
The original structure of this article called for beginning with threats, but in Hungary’s case, the opportunity is more obvious, so I reverse the order. Since the 2024–2025 turning point, Fidesz has been trailing the Tisza coalition in polls. The chief hotelier of Europe’s right wing in Budapest—Orbán—must begin to accept the prospect of losing power. Meanwhile, Ziobro, Romanowski, and their future neighbors should start looking for new vacation resorts where they can hide from Polish justice.
12. Threat – Elections in Hungary
Hungary, however, has long ceased to be a cradle of democracy. Orbán has transformed the system into a hybrid regime bordering on authoritarianism. We therefore cannot be sure of a peaceful transfer of power. Fourteen years in office have allowed him to entrench his influence at many levels, and he still enjoys support exceeding 40 percent. The king, then, is not naked.
13. Threat – The Decline of Values
I am aware that this threat sounds conservative. Yet it reflects a conservative longing for the far more open world of recent decades. With advancing digitalization, simple human relationships are fading away. Everything now has an app; everything is treated as a task. Work is no longer a place to form friendships. We no longer leave keys with neighbors to look after our homes. We no longer visit each other—we meet downtown. We use dating apps to find love. The consequences include not only demographic decline but also a profound disruption of social bonds. This is the world of Generation Z.
13. Opportunity – Generation Z
Yet Generation Z brings not only risks. The generation taking over the world is one that is unafraid to clearly express its concerns. It is not afraid to say no in defense of its well-being and mental health. Perhaps this kind of honesty—rather than forced gatherings with disliked uncles and neighbors—is exactly what we need.
Written by Jakub Andrzej Luber
The article was originally published at https://liberte.pl/26-szans-i-zagrozen-2026-roku/
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