Several days after the US election, it is time to focus on the possible and probable consequences. The Trump victory would present two main challenges for the EU. First, Trump and the Republican Party’s protectionist tendencies could result in a more aggressive trade policy toward Europe. Second, the Trump administration may show little interest in maintaining US support for Ukraine or playing a major role in European defense generally.
For the third consecutive year, the percentage of countries experiencing a decline in the rule of law has decreased. Additionally, for the first time in five years, more countries have shown improvement in the “absence of corruption” indicator. Bulgaria, however, is not among these countries. From 2016 to 2024, the state of fundamental human rights has worsened in 81% of the countries surveyed, including Bulgaria.
In October, Bulgarian interim Finance Minister Lyudmila Petkova held a press conference regarding the 2025 state budget and the medium-term framework for 2025–2028. The biggest surprise was the expert assessment, based on current policies and enacted legislation, which projected a nominal spending increase of BGN 18.1 billion in 2025. Such a significant rise, even as an expert projection, raises several questions:
In November, the Institute for Market Economics’ (IME) introduced its White Paper, Unlocking Growth: The Path Forward After the Elections. But what are the goals we can realistically achieve in the medium term? Below, we present eight fundamental goals with a four-year horizon that are fully attainable and would significantly improve the country’s development potential and quality of life.
Earlier this month, it became clear that the World Bank has classified Bulgaria as a high-income country. This news is an important reflection of the long-term growth trajectory and catching-up process of the developed countries, particularly those in the European Union. Still, it is far from meaning that Bulgaria already has a guaranteed spot in the rich countries club and does not have any difficult problems to solve.
Bulgaria loses between 2.4 and 4.9 billion USD of additional GDP per year due to discrimination against LGBTI+ people, as estimated in a report[1] by the Institute for Market Economics (IME). Bulgaria’s GDP could be 2.5% to 5% higher were there to be full acceptance and equality for LGBTI+ people, according to an estimate by IME based on the 2023 data.
In the past weeks, the convergence reports of the European Commission and the European Central Bank were published. The result for Bulgaria is expected – the inflation rate is higher than the reference value and therefore the country does not meet this Eurozone membership criterion. In practice, this puts an end to the question of whether the country can adopt the euro on 1 January 2025 – no, there is no such possibility.
Bulgaria’s justice deficits have become an invariable part of local political discourse. Often, this leads to numerous statutory changes and rarely to a quality change of the environment.
Last week the Sofia City Prosecutor’s Office reached new legal heights after indicting prosecutor Konstantin Sulev for an offense concerning their professional conduct because last year he accused Peter Petrov without evidence. If one day Mr. Sulev decides to seek justice for his violated rights and if our state fails to guarantee him effective domestic remedies, he will probably have grounds to do so before the European Court of Human Rights.
Bulgaria’s per capita gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms has reached 64% of the European average in 2023. This is one of the indicators that most accurately shows convergence within the European Union, as it takes into account the differences in prices across countries and therefore gives fully comparable values.
