IME

In 2024, Romania will break the 50% government debt limit, becoming the EU country with the largest increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio since the start of the pandemic. High budget deficits - levels of 6-9% of GDP - have pushed Romania\'s debt from 35% in 2019 to 52% in 2024, with a forecast of close to 60% in 2026. In just a few years, Romania will likely have a higher debt than Germany.

The notorious case of a prosecutor who tried to review a court act issued by a judge of the Sofia Regional Court once again raises the question of the functions and status of judges and prosecutors. This issue is of the utmost importance in a country like ours, where the uncontrolled and selective (in the sense of arbitrary) actions of the prosecutor\'s office leave citizens with the impression that prosecutors, not judges, administer justice.

Economic policy in Europe is visibly shifting towards prioritizing competitiveness over green objectives. Over the past year, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta published an ambitious report in support of the EU single market, followed by Mario Draghi\'s widely quoted report on the future of European competitiveness.

Several days after the US election, it is time to focus on the possible and probable consequences. The Trump victory would present two main challenges for the EU. First, Trump and the Republican Party’s protectionist tendencies could result in a more aggressive trade policy toward Europe. Second, the Trump administration may show little interest in maintaining US support for Ukraine or playing a major role in European defense generally.

For the third consecutive year, the percentage of countries experiencing a decline in the rule of law has decreased. Additionally, for the first time in five years, more countries have shown improvement in the \"absence of corruption\" indicator. Bulgaria, however, is not among these countries. From 2016 to 2024, the state of fundamental human rights has worsened in 81% of the countries surveyed, including Bulgaria.

In October, Bulgarian interim Finance Minister Lyudmila Petkova held a press conference regarding the 2025 state budget and the medium-term framework for 2025–2028. The biggest surprise was the expert assessment, based on current policies and enacted legislation, which projected a nominal spending increase of BGN 18.1 billion in 2025. Such a significant rise, even as an expert projection, raises several questions:

In November, the Institute for Market Economics’ (IME) introduced its White Paper, Unlocking Growth: The Path Forward After the Elections. But what are the goals we can realistically achieve in the medium term? Below, we present eight fundamental goals with a four-year horizon that are fully attainable and would significantly improve the country’s development potential and quality of life.

Earlier this month, it became clear that the World Bank has classified Bulgaria as a high-income country. This news is an important reflection of the long-term growth trajectory and catching-up process of the developed countries, particularly those in the European Union. Still, it is far from meaning that Bulgaria already has a guaranteed spot in the rich countries club and does not have any difficult problems to solve.

Bulgaria loses between 2.4 and 4.9 billion USD of additional GDP per year due to discrimination against LGBTI+ people, as estimated in a report[1] by the Institute for Market Economics (IME). Bulgaria\'s GDP could be 2.5% to 5% higher were there to be full acceptance and equality for LGBTI+ people, according to an estimate by IME based on the 2023 data.

In the past weeks, the convergence reports of the European Commission and the European Central Bank were published. The result for Bulgaria is expected - the inflation rate is higher than the reference value and therefore the country does not meet this Eurozone membership criterion. In practice, this puts an end to the question of whether the country can adopt the euro on 1 January 2025 - no, there is no such possibility.