Who will be the next president of Poland, one of the largest European nations? The presidential election in Poland has not yet been scheduled but is expected to take place in May 2025. However, it is already making headlines across the country.
The Polish president, who serves a 5-year term, has a largely representative role but is also responsible for signing and vetoing legislation and exercising legislative initiative. Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) currently occupies this role. He has been known to use his veto power to block bills that are too progressive or simply not in line with his views, preventing the government majority from implementing certain reforms.
This term, the Sejm does not have the required three-fifths majority – representing at least half of all deputies – from the democratic parties that make up the current government to override presidential vetoes, allowing the sitting president to block legislation. That is why the stakes in the upcoming election are so high. Ousting PiS from the presidential palace is seen as the final step in the alliance’s complete defeat.
The candidate of the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska), consisting of Civic Platform, Nowoczesna, Initiative Poland, and the Greens, is widely considered to have the best chance. However, the selection of this candidate was not an easy process. Within the coalition, two strong candidates vied for the nomination: Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal-leftist, and Radosław Sikorski, a conservative-liberal.
Trzaskowski, the current mayor of Warsaw and the coalition’s presidential candidate in 2020, which he lost to Andrzej Duda. He prioritizes women’s rights and is known for removing religious symbols from Warsaw City Hall, a move that earned him the label of being anti-clerical. He has also focused on engaging young people, notably through his initiative Campus Poland of the Future – Europe’s largest social festival for young people, which he has been organizing for years.
Sikorski, on the other hand, emphasizes security as his priority. Currently serving as foreign minister, he brands himself as a “president for difficult times,” emphasizing his extensive experience not only as foreign minister but also as a former defense minister. He argues that with the ongoing war in Ukraine, Poland is also under threat and that his expertise uniquely qualifies him to assume the role of president.
Trzaskowski positions himself as a candidate “for all times,” emphasizing his experience from the 2020 presidential race against PiS’s Andrzej Duda. He believes he is better prepared now, having learned valuable lessons from that campaign. While some critics see his previous defeat as a disadvantage, others highlight his close ties to citizens and the party’s inner circle – in contrast to Sikorski, who has spent considerable time abroad as an MEP or foreign minister.
In addition, Trzaskowski has received support from influential figures such as ministers in Donald Tusk’s government: Adam Szłapka (Minister of European Affairs), Barbara Nowacka (Minister of Education) or Sławomir Nitras (Minister of Sport). While Prime Minister and leader of the largest coalition party Donald Tusk has not openly endorsed anyone, it is widely believed that he prefers Trzaskowski. Some even speculate that Tusk called for the primaries knowing that Trzaskowski would win, given his greater involvement in internal party structures and a broader network of supporters.
Sikorski, despite an impressive internal campaign, lacked comparable support, although he did secure the endorsement of former Polish President Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995-2005). Within the coalition parties, the Greens offered partial support to Sikorski, a surprising move given their leftist orientation and Trzaskowski’s more left-wing platform. Meanwhile, Nowoczesna and Initiative Poland mainly supported Trzaskowski, as did most of the younger members.
The primaries were held on Friday, November 22, by electronic ballot in which over 22,000 members participated. Trzaskowski won the primary by a landslide, securing 75% of the vote to Sikorski’s 25%. At the time of the vote, it was still unclear who the PiS would nominate as its candidate. An important factor for members was how the coalition’s candidate would fare against PiS in the presidential election.
According to a poll commissioned by the coalition, both Trzaskowski and Sikorski were expected to win against the PiS candidate in a possible second round – Trzaskowski with 57% and Sikorski with 54%. It was clear that Trzaskowski was expected to do slightly better.
Although this democratic form of primaries has been used before within the coalition, it surprised many, especially since it was expected that Donald Tusk would unilaterally appoint the presidential candidate.
Having said that, it is important to consider why Donald Tusk decided to call for primaries. Was it a strategy to absolve himself of potential blame if the chosen candidate fails to win against the PiS? Interestingly, Trzaskowski says that he proposed the pre-election process, possibly in order to secure a strong mandate and eliminate any doubts about who should represent the coalition. According to his supporters, the purpose of the primaries was to energize party members and assess their organizational strength ahead of the 2025 presidential elections.
On the other hand, did Sikorski know he was going to lose? Some say he must have, as he lacked the level of support Trzaskowski had within the inner circle and among party members, yet he chose to run to serve the party and the coalition. The pre-election process managed to dominate media coverage on all channels in Poland in the weeks leading up to the vote, creating the impression that the coalition’s candidate was destined to become Poland’s next president. Sikorski may have sacrificed his chances to generate enthusiasm among party members, attract media attention, and ultimately improve the coalition’s standing in the polls. Whether or not this was a success will be seen in the upcoming presidential elections.
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