The EU Commission’s (EC) spring forecast, demonstrating the expected real growth for 2022 and 2023 was published exactly a day before the preliminary data for growth in the first quarter of 2022.
The year 2021 brought to light what is otherwise invisible and unappreciated in normal times. Business people were unexpectedly commended for the growth of GDP. But what was the actual cost of growing it?
The “Polish Order”, presented by the ruling Law and Justice party, is a marketing shell without comprehensive reforms and adequate and effective actions. It is not a plan for increasing prosperity. It is a plan for spending money and buying votes in those areas where the authorities have their electorate and can still gain some points.
Some respected economists identified the issue of consolidation in public budget already in 2022 as a third-order problem. From an analytical point of view, he is, of course, right. A one-year deficit of 10% of GDP is nothing compared to a permanent two to five per cent deficit in the pension system with a declining workforce.
After thirty years since the fall of Communism in Europe, Ukraine remains a country with unfinished institutional reforms and significant barriers for business and trade. The country gained independence when the Soviet Union dissolved two years later – in 1991.
If Ukraine loses the chance to receive assistance from the IMF and other international donors in 2018, the government will be hard-pressed to execute planned fiscal expenditures in 2018. The fiscal indicators will be also revised for 2019 to lower real GDP growth and higher inflation.
Apart from modern enterprises competing in international markets, there are more small enterprises of very low productivity in Poland than in developed countries. FOR estimates that half of Polish GDP is produced by at most 5.6 million people.
Previous tax cuts released 1% of GDP worth value to taxpayers’ pockets, followed by ongoing red tape cuts and market deregulations. These moderately intensive reform trends have created a methodologically based contribution for slight increase of economic freedom.
CEA has published its Croatia 2025 Vision which contains concrete market reform ideas for minimum 30% increase of competitiveness and economic freedom. All ideas are based on relevant world methodologies with concrete policy direction adjusted to practical challenges.
Gross domestic product is undoubtedly a useful indicator of how the economy is performing. It shows one aspect of the economy that can be used to interpret a general level of “health.” However, while GDP is comparable to a simple doctor’s check-up, it isn’t as in-depth as a yearly physical.
