IMF

The International Monetary Fund\'s mission carried out an assessment in Warsaw on 14-24 March under Art. IV of the of the IMF Articles of Agreement. The mission pointed to the most important problems of the Polish economy and presented related recommendations. The Fund\'s delegation pointed out that the most important challenge is to bring inflation down to the target (which upper band of deviations is 3.5%). Therefore, it becomes necessary to tighten fiscal policy this year.

In compliance with the requirements of the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine has split its previously combined fiscal service into separate tax and customs agencies. This is a step in the right direction, which should be followed by re-orienting the customs to serve businesses and promote cross-border trade.

If Ukraine loses the chance to receive assistance from the IMF and other international donors in 2018, the government will be hard-pressed to execute planned fiscal expenditures in 2018. The fiscal indicators will be also revised for 2019 to lower real GDP growth and higher inflation.

Ukraine needs at the very least 5% annual GDP growth to catch up with neighboring countries in economic development. One option would be improved investment climate for higher FDI and domestic-sourced capital investment. Other options are limited given lack of fiscal space and aging capital assets.

In the last five years, Piraeus Bank has lost 97% of its value and Eurobank (indeed, an apt name) an astounding 99.8% of the value. Their market value is currently five times lower that the market value of the Uber company. However, the Stock Exchange has not reached the historic low of the year 2012.

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