What do we need in a year of uncertainty? Determination, optimism, and faith that through consistent and resolute action, we can overcome the challenges the world faces today. Unfortunately, history may repeat itself, but that does not mean we are helpless.
After decades of relative geopolitical stability, years of peace, a time of spectacular economic development, and poverty reduction, the world finds itself at a crossroads. Increasingly powerful and aggressive authoritarian powers challenge the peaceful global order dominated by Western democracies. Radical populism in Western democracies threatens to fracture alliances and destroy liberal values from within. The war in Ukraine, persistent threats to borders, inflation and economic crises, climate change, migration pressures, and the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence are challenges that provoke widespread concern.
What do we need in this time of uncertainty? Determination, optimism, and faith that through steadfast, deliberate action, we can confront today’s challenges. While history may unfortunately repeat itself, it does not leave us powerless. Our ancestors faced even greater challenges, yet they built plans of action and fought for a better future.
In moments of uncertainty, it is always worthwhile to draw inspiration from the great speeches of Winston Churchill during Britain’s struggle against the Third Reich. These speeches emerged from a period of darkness and hardship, though the problems of that era are still difficult to compare with what Europe faces today.
“I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat. We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war by sea, land, and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: Victory. Victory at all costs—victory in spite of all terror—victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.” [1]
From leaders we should demand that they show ways of solving problems, sometimes painful, but effective, that will lead our societies out of problems. In the early 1990s, Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Leszek Balcerowicz, and Jacek Kuroń were able to set such a direction for Poland; a direction continued by successive teams governing the country. Today we need such courageous leaders for Poland and for the whole of Europe. The European Union is still the best place to live. However, bureaucratic stagnation and misinterpretation of key economic and geopolitical processes may cause European civilization to be marginalized and dominated by new world powers basing their actions on illiberal values.
We should not hastily abandon solutions that have worked in the past and brought spectacular economic development and poverty reduction to the world. Globalization, liberal democracy, and the free market have worked best in history as a remedy for humanity’s ills. This is brilliantly demonstrated in his latest book, The Capitalist Manifesto by Johan Norberg. The last forty years of an expanding global free market have brought a reduction in global poverty from over 40% in 1980 to 8.4% in 2022 [2].
This has resulted in the following:
“Between 1990 and 2019, global life expectancy increased from 64 to nearly 73 years. The percentage of the world’s population achieving primary education rose sharply, and the percentage of illiterate people halved from 35.7% to 13.5% (…). Between 2000 and 2020, the percentage of working children in the age group 5 – 17 fell globally from 16% to just under 10%.” [3].
Authoritarian states, often brutally violating human rights, were also the beneficiaries of the fruits of this spectacular economic growth. They built stronger repressive apparatuses and their own military power on the new gains. Hopes from 30 years ago that richer societies would automatically cause a wave of democracy and the spread of human rights in many places have not proven true. Therefore, this does not mean that nothing should be changed in the globalization model and policies of democratic states in the face of threats from authoritarianism.
The democratic West must be ready for the military challenges of a potential confrontation with authoritarian states and keep up in the technological race. However, rejecting the principles of free competition and global trade too deeply will be counterproductive. Our values and proven principles are the greatest strength of the Western world.
A particularly great challenge faces the countries of Europe today, which, while defending their values, must note that without changes in economic and defense policies, we will not keep up in the global competitive, military, and technological race. As a result, we may soon become an open-air museum doomed to the mercy of other powers.
The collective economic power of a united Europe is still enormous, and we are not at all doomed to marginalization. However, the European Union must stop looking for the remedy for all problems in the word “regulation” and return to building development mechanisms based on the market and consumer choices and policies that will make us able to compete in global markets as well. We need to create a favorable regulatory environment for the development of cutting-edge technologies. Use AI for the good purposes instead of defending ourselves against it.
Europe’s green deal must undergo adjustments. The fight against climate change must become a global goal, but it must not cause Europe to impose costly standards only on itself, falling out of global markets while failing to stop global warming anyway. The fight for a green future should be based on technological innovation and offering green but competitive products that will be naturally chosen by consumers.
What we should do is save nature and biodiversity, reaching also to traditional means. If the European Union needs to impose something on member states, it should certainly be an obligation to radically expand protected areas, including actively reclaiming certain agricultural and settlement areas, particularly those remote from major cities in favor of newly planted national parks. This is possible and it has potential to gain huge public support. Such investments should work like major infrastructure investments, providing adequate compensation for people who will have to relocate.
The biggest unknown of 2025 remains the presidency of Donald Trump and the possibility that he will trigger a global economic crisis. The prospect of tariff wars with neighbors, China, or the European Union could cause economic slowdowns and inflation around the world. Individual players may win on this move, but the entirety will lose. Will Trump actually carry out his threats, or will he negotiate various American interests with blackmail? We can read from the tea leaves.
What is certain, however, is that Trump’s presidency should not lower our determination to build transatlantic ties and maintain the broadest possible economic and political relations between Europe and the US. At the same time, the unpredictability of the situation must make Europe self-reliant in dealing with security challenges and be prepared for deteriorating economic conditions.
The challenge regarding Ukraine may prove to be baggage that Europe will have to face on its own. The most likely scenario for Kyiv is a forced continuation of hostilities. It is doubtful that Putin will give Trump the gift of peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the US. After all, it will be far more convenient for Russia to discredit the American president’s arrogance and put him in a position where he will have to choose between abandoning an ally and contradicting his election promises of peacekeeping and American isolationism. Moscow’s goal is for a Ukraine to be fully dependent on the Kremlin’s ruler, and only a policy of force can deter Putin from achieving it.
The only hope remains in Russia’s economic situation, which is not fully known to us, and which may be bad enough to force Putin to postpone his goal. A possible ceasefire at the cost of territorial sacrifices must give Ukraine real security guarantees and the presence of allied troops on the demarcation line. We must realize that as long as Putin and the formation he has created reign in the Kremlin, there will be no peace for Ukraine other than one guaranteed by a powerful military force.
At the same time, for the Western world, a loss in the war in Ukraine would mean a compromise that would be difficult to imagine and very likely the beginning of a domino in which the global order will be further undermined by the brute naked force of authoritarian powers. There will be a proliferation of politicians such as Orban or Fico ready to bow their heads before evil. For the sake of the future of our children and all our values, this must not happen. Therefore, Europe must be ready to support Ukraine alone for as long as necessary. We will pay a much higher price for any other scenario.
Either way, we are in a state of hybrid warfare with Russia. We need to start countering Russian influence and election manipulation much more radically. New procedures must be created to counter Russian disinformation and Russian political influence.
In 2025, Poland must take co-responsibility for setting the course of change for Europe and In 2025, Poland must take co-responsibility for setting the course of change for Europe and remove the last barrier to dynamic policy – a president from the Law and Justice camp. Rafal Trzaskowski is the hope for a functioning ruling camp. Karol Nawrocki in the Presidential Palace means probable paralysis and disintegration of the ruling coalition. The stakes are therefore very high indeed.
I also very much hope that the end of 2025 will bring not only needed moves in economic and defense policy, but also a solution to worldview issues, which should not go down the drain. The 15 October Coalition promised changes for citizens in this area as well. The right to choose for women, liberalization of anti-abortion laws, civil unions – these are our clear expectations on the list of issues to be resolved by December 2025.
References
[1] Winston Churchill, May 13, 1940 speech in the House of Commons; https://wyborcza.pl/7,175991,28114413,pisac-jak-winston-churchill-krotko-jasno-celnie.html.
[2] Johan Norberg, Capitalist Manifesto, p. 24.
[3] Johan Norberg, Capitalist Manifesto, p. 24.
The article was originally published in Polish at: https://liberte.pl/2025-czas-niepewnosci/
Translated by Natalia Banaś
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