Nowadays, Polish Democrats must learn how to navigate the increasingly complicated reality of geopolitics and juggle competing priorities. In this context, however, the United States of America should be kept as a crucial associate as long as possible. The global balance of power and a realistic assessment of future trends make this strategy essential for Polish democracy.
Donald Trump and his entourage evoke my disbelief, disagreement, resistance, and cognitive dissonance rather than enthusiasm. Probably the same case applies to most of you. These feelings stem from well-documented concerns: tariffs, isolationism, oppressive moral conservatism, anti-globalism, a confrontational approach to the international order, troubling stances on Russia and Ukraine, and a blatant disregard for allies. However, when acting in the public sphere, one must be able to put emotions aside to form a realistic assessment of the situation.
If we accept that the US must forever be associated with Donald Trump, then by the same logic, Poland must be tied to Jarosław Kaczyński and his worldview. Democracy is a constant struggle for change, realistic and attainable, as long as it does not slide into repression. Today, we do not have any reasonable indications that suggest the United States will cease to be a democratic state. However, it is quite a challenge for a liberal democrat to accept many of the Trump administration’s moves.
The rise of anti-American sentiment among liberal and democratic opinion leaders in Poland is somewhat understandable on an emotional level, but at the same time, a tremendous mistake. This mistake is not only contagious but likely fueled by forces hostile to the Western world. Poland’s strategic goal should be to counter the erosion of transatlantic relations despite all difficult circumstances. However, this does not mean that Poland should abstain from any form of reaction to the situation. Deepening ties with Europe, bilateral agreements, and the development of its defense capabilities are the raison d’État today. We should use every card in the deck and keep Washington’s involvement in Poland wherever possible.
On the one hand, Donald Trump is a dangerous populist, a volatile politician, a self-centered and erratic leader known for destabilizing decision-making. On the other hand, he is limited by the support of the citizens, the economic and geopolitical situation. We should try to gain as much as possible for the security and economy of Poland, Ukraine, and Europe by deepening economic relations with US entities. American investments in Poland, including digital giants, are first and foremost a security policy.
This is especially true because the US remains a country of remarkable people, bold ideas, and outstanding entrepreneurs. They did not disappear overnight. It is still a country that was the cradle of democracy. Can this change? It can. In the US, populism is expanding its influence. Once in Poland, there was also a possibility that Jaroslaw Kaczynski would constantly convince the majority of voters of his formation and slowly change the system into an authoritarian one. This, however, has failed – at least so far.
Given the entire democratic tradition of the United States, all the values and interests for which America is known, and the incompetence of Trump’s team, it seems reasonable to expect that his team may lose power relatively soon. According to available surveys, Trump had the lowest approval ratings among newly elected US presidents during his first 100 days.
Thus, will the old America return? Will it be Reagan-era politics or the neoconservative and globalist Washington from the beginning of the century? Probably not. It is worth noting that the strategic pivot in US foreign policy—from focusing on Europe to prioritizing the Pacific and China—began under Barack Obama. At the same time, he pursued a reset in relations with Russia, despite its aggression against Georgia in 2008. So, everything is changing and yet repeating itself under different circumstances.
My editorial colleague recently wrote that the transatlantic relationship from before January 2025 will not return in this generation. If he meant ties and sympathy on both sides of the Atlantic, then, in my opinion, he is wrong. Whereas I want to express my hope that, in a certain way, they will not return in any generation. A situation in which one of the most powerful and richest parts of the current world – the European Union – relies almost entirely on security provided by an overseas ally is a strategic mistake that must never be repeated. While Europe is maintaining the closest possible alliance with the United States and its military presence on European territories, it must become a fully-fledged partner in providing security and military power.
Instead, I believe that the transatlantic values—international cooperation and economic collaboration—will return to their former tone and intensity sooner than we expect. The United States and its society are evolving. However, nothing changes fully overnight. The US, as we know it, has not disappeared, and what is more, it badly needs a European ally to compete against China and other new global powers. Therefore, all statements suggesting a rapprochement between Europe and Russia, which support China, are extremely unwise and detached from reality. China, unlike the US, remains a one-party dictatorship with an enormous apparatus of repression and a state-sanctioned system of surveillance of its citizens.
By all means, let us continue to invest our efforts in building a global alliance of democratic nations.
The article was originally published at https://liberte.pl/stany-zjednoczone-ameryki-nie-odeszly/
Translated by Amelia Gumińska
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