After the summer recess, the Bulgarian Parliament rushed to change the rules for electing the chair of the National Statistical Institute (NSI). However, under the pretext of improving independence, this is simply an attempt to remove an inconvenient director who refuses to comply with the demands of political parties and institutions, even when they are contrary to the legislation and principles on which the statistical institute is based. After such an undermining of the NSI’s independence, the step towards ‘tailor-made data’ seems very small.
The amendments proposed last week in Parliament suggest that the current model for appointing the president and vice-presidents of the NSI should be changed, so that instead of being appointed by the Council of Ministers, they would be elected by the National Assembly. The transitional provision states that a new chair and deputies must be elected within one month of the changes coming into force. The reason given is to increase the statistical institute’s independence from the executive branch.
It is not particularly clear what necessitates this urgent change, which topped the agenda of MPs after their summer break. Indeed, in its latest Peer Review Report from 2022, the European Statistical System recommends (pp. 4-5) that changes be made in the way the NSI chairperson is elected. However, this recommendation only suggests improving the criteria for selecting the president based solely on their professional qualities, as well as increasing the transparency of the process. It explicitly emphasizes the independence of the institution and the responsibility of its director for making decisions on all statistical matters.
Nowhere in the recommendations is there any mention of changing the body that elects the NSI chairperson, nor is there any mention of interrupting the term of office of an already elected chairperson in the second year of a seven-year term. In other words, the reason for the urgent changes must be sought in the domestic political context and the unusually turbulent events that have surrounded the statistical institute over the past year, particularly regarding the adoption of the euro and data on the prices of goods and services.
The first attack on the statistics came from the Revival Party, which directly accused the NSI of manipulating the data behind the consumer price index so that Bulgaria could meet the inflation criterion for joining the Eurozone. The party then requested access to the raw price data, which – in accordance with the Statistics Act and the NSI’s obligations to its respondents and sources of information – was categorically denied.
A few months later, the Consumer Protection Commission also submitted a request on the subject of prices, this time in an attempt to develop a tool for monitoring and controlling prices. The response from the statistical institute was, unsurprisingly, again to refuse to provide data in violation of the law, regardless of the intentions of other institutions.
The coincidence of these two refusals – especially the second one – with the changes in the way the NSI director is elected, and the holding of a new tender, is obvious. The parliamentary majority will seek a new (and more compliant) head of statistics who will not be bothered by details such as the anonymity of sources and following procedures and research methodology when it comes to cases of national importance, such as the publication of price levels.
However, the proposed change calls into question the independence of the statistical institute from now on. This, in turn, is one of the direct requirements for European statistical authorities. Regulation 223/2009 clearly states that the development, production, and dissemination of statistical data must be carried out under conditions of
‘professional independence’, which means that statistics must be developed, produced and disseminated in an independent manner, particularly with regard to the choice of techniques, definitions, methodologies and sources to be used, and the timing and content of all forms of dissemination, without any pressure from political or interest groups or from community and national authorities, without prejudice to the institutional structure, such as community or national institutional or budgetary provisions or the definition of statistical needs (Art. 2 (1) (a))
When discussing ‘cooperation’ with other public authorities through the sharing of information, the Regulation is very clear – statistics must comply with
“statistical confidentiality,” which means the protection of confidential data relating to individual statistical units acquired directly for statistical purposes or indirectly from administrative or other sources and implies a prohibition on the use of the data acquired for non-statistical purposes and on their unlawful disclosure (Art. 2 (1) (e)).
With regard to the heads of statistical authorities in particular, the same regulation states that they
are independent in the performance of their statistical tasks and do not seek or take instructions from any government or other institution, body, office, or entity (Art. 5a(2)(c)).
However, when those in power change legislation and procedures solely to replace the current head of the NSI, this independence is, to say the least, questionable. If the next chairperson also decides to have their own opinion, it is practically guaranteed that they will not be able to complete their seven-year term.
Of course, the bigger question is whether the gross interference in the work of the NSI that is happening today could affect the quality and content of the data that the institution produces. Will those in power be able to order statistics that meet their needs and present their mandate in a favorable light, but have nothing to do with reality? For now, there are no indications of this, especially given the close relationship and constant control that national statistical institutes are subject to by Eurostat. However, with a strong desire, this barrier is not insurmountable. The path to ‘tailor-made data’ is paved, and it is preferable not to take it.