The outcome of the U.S. presidential election should not be too surprising. Not only did a careful analysis of the polls predict Donald Trump’s victory in all seven swing states, but the trend over the past four weeks was also clear. State polling averages increasingly favored the Republican, while individual polls showing Kamala Harris in the lead became fewer and less convincing.

Several days after the US election, it is time to focus on the possible and probable consequences. The Trump victory would present two main challenges for the EU. First, Trump and the Republican Party’s protectionist tendencies could result in a more aggressive trade policy toward Europe. Second, the Trump administration may show little interest in maintaining US support for Ukraine or playing a major role in European defense generally.

This year will undoubtedly be crucial for the future of democracy. As Professor Timothy D. Snyder, specializing in this area, says, it could be a year of either a breakdown and further prolonged recession of democracy worldwide or a breakthrough and the defense of these democracies. They will manage to confront the growing populism, disinformation, and tremendous pressure from authoritarian systems.